Is Victor Wembanyama Enough for the Spurs?

Will the Spurs compete for a playoff spot? How far can a one-man show take them?

We are on the cusp of the new NBA season! Let’s get ZOOKED and analyze one of the teams I’m most excited to watch this year: the San Antonio Spurs.

After one of the best rookie seasons we’ve seen in a long time from Victor Wembanyama, the world is HIGH on the Spurs. BetMGM and FanDuel have the Spurs over/under set at 35.5 — 14 wins over their paltry 22 from last season.

Let’s start with Wemby.

He is obviously a transcendent talent — an eye-catching phenom who is already one of the best defenders in the world with an up-and-coming offensive game. While he scored 21.4 points per game last year — a top-40 number and number one amongst rookies by over four points per game — he did so inefficiently (.565 true shooting percentage — slightly below average per Basketball Reference).

But that’s common for a rookie. His efficiency will improve over time as he becomes more accustomed to the NBA, is surrounded by better teammates, and puts in the work.

What impressed me the most about his rookie season was his playmaking. At the draft, one of his biggest weaknesses was considered his passing. Yet, he averaged 3.9 assists per game last year — number four among rookies and a top-10 number for all centers. He has extraordinary vision.

LOL. Watch that first clip again. That is a 7’4” center crossing Tyrese Maxey off a pin-down screen and delivering a pocket pass dime in traffic.

The man can pass. Don’t be surprised if he gets into the 5-6 assist range this year. (A common knock with rookies is their abundance of turnovers — Wemby was no different. Of the 36 centers with an assist percentage greater than 10%, he had the third-worst assist-to-turnover ratio. His IQ and feel of the game are too good for that not to get better.)

Going back to 2000-01, Wemby tied for the best season of all rookies in BPM at +5.2 and second-best in VORP at 3.8 behind Chris Paul. His rookie season advanced metrics put him above famed rookies such as Blake Griffin, LeBron James, Luka Doncic, and more. He’s so good already.

However, the difference between becoming a truly generational player like LeBron, Luka, or Nikola Jokic versus “just” a league superstar (like Blake Griffin or Paul who also had phenomenal rookie seasons) is what comes next. LeBron’s BPM went from +1.7 to +8.6 in his second season. His VORP went from 2.9 to an astonishing 9.1 — almost double the next closest player. Luka was similar going from +3.9 to +8.4 in BPM and 3.4 to 5.4 in VORP. Jokic went from +3.9 to +7.3 and 2.6 to 4.8.

For the Spurs to leap forward, Wemby needs to do the same thing. He will need to score more — LeBron, Jokic, and Luka increased theirs by about seven points per game from year one to two. He will need to do so more efficiently — all of their true shooting percentages went up by about six percent (getting to the free throw line more often while improving his catch-and-shoot three-point percentage will probably get him there). And, he will probably need to show even more improved playmaking.

After Wemby, the rest of the roster is certainly better than last year.

Tre Jones moves back to a reserve role while Chris Paul takes over the starting duties with rookie Stephon Castle likely getting the point guard minutes when Paul or Jones sits out. That’s 48 minutes of point guard play per game every game, something they did not have last year. Castle is a rugged defender who should be tasked with defending the best guard on the opposing team throughout this year. (His size allows him to defend up the lineup and play next to point guards like Jones and Paul.) Offensively, he has an outstanding feel for the game and is eerily good at slithering through small gaps to get all the way to the rim whether on closeouts or in the pick-and-roll.

However, his ultimate ceiling still hinges on his ability to knock down a spot-up jumper consistently.

The wings will be manned by Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Jeremy Sochan, Malaki Branham, Julian Champagnie, and veteran Harrison Barnes. Barnes replaces Cedi Osman in the rotation while likely also stealing some of the minutes from Sochan, Branham, and Champagnie (though I still expect all of those guys to play plenty). Champagnie is a solid eighth or ninth man on good teams — a good shooter who is often in the right position on defense, though athletically overmatched by the best offensive players and with a very limited skillset on offense to create advantages for others.

Zach Collins is overpaid but is a fine backup center behind Wemby. He tries hard on defense and is a solid passer.

Vassell, Johnson, Collins, and Jones are all solid role players — Vassell is probably even more than that. He’s not the defender that Mikal Bridges is, but his offensive game is lightyears ahead of where Bridges was at the same age. I expect him to settle into a third-option role on a really good team as he enters his prime over the next few years. I trust those guys in an NBA rotation.

My concern with the Spurs lies in the young guns though. Last year, Sochan, Branham, and the rest of the recent draft picks just weren’t very good yet. Sochan is the most important to their core and is going into his third season — this is often the year that players evolve into real rotation players or show us that it’s not happening.

Sochan’s biggest strength is his defense — he is lanky and athletic with plenty of strength and speed to defend up and down the lineup. He’s best defending in isolation where he can use his physical tools. However, like many young players, he can still fall asleep off-ball and struggles to navigate screens.

Offensively, he still struggles to shoot with an inconsistent and herky-jerky form. His free throw and three-point percentage actually improved substantially but were still below league average. He is a good playmaker — as much heat as the Spurs got for trying him as their lead ball handler to start the season last year, I thought it was worth trying given his court vision. One of the best ways to counter a player’s lack of shooting is to put him on the ball; unfortunately, it didn’t work. Given Sochan’s playmaking skills, to become a reliable rotation player, he doesn’t need to be an elite shooter — possibly not even an average one — he just needs to be good enough that defenses have to guard him.

The popular analysis is that he needs to become a better three-point shooter. (Don’t get me wrong, the Spurs would be excited about that.) However, Sochan ranks in the bottom third of the league shooting inside the paint — unacceptable for a 6’8” power forward.

For Sochan to excel offensively, he needs to develop better moves, feel, and touch inside the paint — particularly when a shot blocker challenges him near the rim. When he picks his spots and attacks a mismatch, he does better — there is less flailing and more purposeful moves.

I’d like to see more of this in 2024-25 from Sochan.

So the Spurs added two real rotation players in Paul and Barnes while their young core continues to develop. And they probably have a generational talent on the roster. Is that enough? What does history say?

The Cavs jumped from 35 wins to 42 wins in LeBron’s second year; the Mavs went from 33 to 43 in Luka’s; Jokic helped the Nuggets improve from 33 to 40. That’s an increase but not the massive jump that betting markets and analysts are expecting from the Spurs in Wemby’s second year.

How often do teams even make a 14-win jump? On average, about three teams actually — a surprisingly high number. Last year, the Rockets, Timberwolves, and Thunder increased their win total by 14 or more games. The Mavericks, Magic, and Pacers were just below that at 12, 13, and 12 wins respectively. There are several candidates to increase their win totals by that much this year: the Grizzlies (27 wins last year), Hornets (21), Cavaliers (48), Mavericks (50), Pistons (14), Rockets (41), and Spurs (22) come to mind.

The Grizzlies and Pistons seem like the most obvious choices to improve after an injury-marred season for the Griz and several new veterans joined the Pistons roster. It’s more of a crapshoot to me after that with the other options. The Spurs will be better than last year — the additions of Paul and Barnes plus improvement from everyone else will lead to that. But, barring unexpected substantial improvement from other players, I’m not sure I see the Spurs getting to fringe playoff contention and 36 wins. Call me a debbie downer but I’m predicting a more modest growth of five to seven wins like Wemby’s generational talent brethren before him.