Key Factors in Three First-Round Series
Key Factors in Three First-Round Series
A look at how the Suns massacred the Timberwolves last weekend, a Bucks team sans-Giannis, and the feisty Orlando Magic.
It’s playoff time! Let’s dig in and look at a few key factors that might dictate a few of these first-round playoff series.
(3) Minnesota Timberwolves vs (6) Phoenix Suns
How sticky will the ball be for the Timberwolves?
Game 82 saw the Timberwolves resort to their worst habits against the Suns: no off-ball movement, driving into double-teams, and throwing the ball all over the gym. For the Suns, game 82 saw them find their best basketball: quick ball movement, elite shooting on offense, and competent play on the other end of the floor.
This has not been a good matchup for the Wolves all year — Game 82 was the third matchup between the Suns and Timberwolves with the Suns winning all three matchups by an average of 16 points.
The Suns defense overloaded every action, trusting that Anthony Edwards and Karl Anthony-Towns would not get off the ball early or make skip passes to open shooters. They dialed in on Edwards and Towns, doubling on every drive, and virtually ignoring everyone else.
That bet largely paid off for the Suns in Game 82: Towns and Edwards combined for 40% on 15 shots, 6 assists, and 10 turnovers. That is, uh, not going to be good enough.
If the Suns continue to force the ball out of Edwards and Towns’s hands, Mike Conley should be an X-factor in this series. He is an elite shooter (44% from three on over five attempts per game this season) and continues to boast one of the best pick-and-roll pocket passes in the game. The Conley-Gobert pick-and-roll is a harmony, two players who have been together so long that they know exactly how to move in concert to defeat their foes. The Timberwolves frequently go to this play when they feel their offense slipping.
For Conley to make a greater impact, he needs to be more aggressive looking for his shot. He shot less than nine times per game this season — that number should increase to 13 or 14 for the Timberwolves offense to hum.
On the other side of the ball, the Timberwolves will try to find somewhere to hide Towns — a task easier said than done. The Suns feature four shooters around one of their ground-bound centers at all times — they may even try Kevin Durant at center in lineups featuring five shooters. (This happened more regularly towards the end of the season. We will see how often the Suns coaching staff decides to play those lineups against the massive Wolves frontline.)
Chris Finch, head coach of the Wolves, started Towns on Grayson Allen — one of the premier shooters in the league — in Game 82. That’s a risky proposition trusting Towns to stick to a shooter who shot over 45% from three this season. Unfortunately, there’s nowhere else for him to hide against an offense this potent.
Finch could try putting Towns on the Suns centers, Jusuf Nurkic or Drew Eubanks. This takes Rudy Gobert out of the middle though — a nonstarter given his defensive acumen in the paint and Towns’s inability to defend in the pick-and-roll. Instead, Towns will likely continue to guard the perimeter player that is least threatening off-the-dribble — usually Allen or Royce O’Neal.
The Suns have an edge with experience and star power. Kevin Durant and Devin Booker have been there before — they won’t be scared of the moment and will make the right play at the end of a game. The Timberwolves have (much) better depth and one of the best defenses in the league. This should be a fun battle.
(4) Cleveland Cavaliers vs (5) Orlando Magic
How will the Cavaliers respond to the physicality of the Magic?
I can’t decide if the Cavs drawing the Magic in the first round is their best- or worst-case scenario. On one hand, the Magic are perhaps the weakest opponent in the top six seeds in the Eastern Conference given their age and offensive ineptitude. On the other hand, the Magic are the most physical team in the East — maybe rivaled only by the New York Knicks, the team that punted the Cavs out of the playoffs last season through sheer, brute force.
The Magic snare every rebound (they were 4th in total rebound rate this year), force more turnovers than all but one other team and go to the free-throw line more than any other team in the league. (They also foul at one of the league’s highest rates. Cleveland has been a below-average team in free-throw attempts this season. They must take advantage of their opponent’s aggressiveness in this series and get to the free-throw line more.)
Orlando scored about 47% of their field goals in the paint this season, 5th in the league — Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley will need to be at their best defending the rim. Like the Suns strategy against the Timberwolves, Cleveland will overload the ball side of the floor and dare Orlando’s shooters to make shots.
The Magic will throw multiple looks at Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell in the pick-and-roll. In one possession, Jalen Suggs or Gary Harris will hound the Cleveland guards with size and ferocity. The next, Jonathan Isaac will switch the screen and completely take one of Cleveland’s guards out of the possession — or force a turnover.
Cleveland will be ready for this. They are not the same team they were last year where they insisted on running the same pick-and-roll from the top of the key again and again despite the defense loading up against it.
The Cavs will incorporate more movement at the beginning of the set, creating an initial advantage for Mitchell, Garland, or one of the other guards to attack. Allen has become more comfortable playing out of the short roll. Max Strus, a key addition this offseason, is a knock-down shooter that defenses can’t leave to load the paint.
The Cavs are now one of the best shooting teams in the league, ranking 5th in three-pointers made and 7th in three-point percentage since the all-star break. The Magic can be found at 26th since the all-star break in three-pointers made. However, where their offense lacks three-point shooting, their defense makes up for it by allowing the third-fewest three-point attempts in the league.
Orlando will be ready for the additional movement — they will try to force Cleveland’s shooters off their desired path, get in the passing lanes, and hound ball handlers to make the entry passes harder. Orlando’s length makes it tougher to shoot threes over closeouts. Cleveland’s response to this — and the amount of three-pointers they can take and make — stands to be the biggest bellwether in this series.
The Cavaliers have been pretty bad since the all-star break, going 12-17 with a -3.6 net rating — that ranks 22nd for all teams in that span. Yes, they have dealt with injuries but haven’t looked much better over the past week since their full core got healthy again. They will have to turn it around quickly to avoid another first-round upset.
(One last thing: Orlando’s offense is not good, ranking 22nd in the league. It is often stagnant and lacks the shooting to bring it to life. Cole Anthony is perhaps the second or third-best offensive player on the Magic — he gives the Magic one more ball handler and floor spacer; however, he also is small and presents a target for Mitchell and Garland to expose. The Cavs guards will need to attack him every opportunity they get.)
(3) Milwaukee Bucks vs (6) Indiana Pacers
Can the Pacers keep the Bucks out of the restricted area?
Admittedly, the injury to two-time MVP, Giannis Antetokounmpo, has made this series a little less interesting. Giannis changes the entire structure of a game — a dominant offensive force who cannot be turned away from the rim combined with the defensive instincts that make him one of the best help defenders in the game. He averaged 42.2 points per game in five games against the Pacers this year — with two games over 50 points. (All of these occurred before January 4th and the Pacers acquiring Pascal Siakam — their only hope to slow Giannis down.)
Giannis attacks at the heart of the Pacers defensive weaknesses, leading the league in free-throw attempts and shots at the rim — the Pacers foul more than any other team and give up more shots at the rim than anyone else. His absence changes everything.
The Pacers have built a defensive identity around taking away opponent three-point attempts — the Bucks shoot more threes than almost anyone. (In the early-season games against the Pacers, the Bucks shot about five threes less than their per-game average.)
Damian Lillard shot a career-high percentage from the restricted area this season — the exact territory that Indiana fails to protect — but is taking (by far) a career-low percentage of his attempts at the rim. Instead, Dame has settled for more shots in the floater range — possibly a combination of a loss of burst and increased help defenders in the paint. He will have to break that trend if Milwaukee is going to win this series sans Giannis.
Milwaukee needs its other playmakers to bide time for Giannis to get healthy by stepping up with increased play creation.
Khris Middleton — finally healthy, playing in 12 of their final 15 games — will have to dial back the clock and make shots. Can they get 33-35 minutes per game from him? Middleton and Giannis have a special connection in the pick-and-roll — he will likely be running it more with Portis and Lopez instead while Giannis is out.
Brook Lopez will have to be a factor in the paint off the Dame-Lopez pick-and-rolls. He is a monster, sizing seven feet tall — the Pacers cannot push him around him. The Bucks need him to do more than fade for three-pointers when involved in the action.
Bobby Portis will be tasked with increased creation. He is a fan favorite in Milwaukee — a couple made shots and the crowd will be roaring. Can he average over 15 points per game with an increased minutes load? Portis will likely be tasked with guarding Siakam occasionally; his ability to hang in that matchup may dictate how many minutes he can get.
With no Giannis, Indiana should be favored to win this series. The Bucks need to split the first two games while at home and try to steal one back on the road when Giannis is (maybe?) back. Watch closely to see how effective Milwaukee is at the rim — it will be the swing factor in this series.