Three Week One Observations

Including the abysmal Nuggets offense, a porous Bucks defense, and something good happening for the Pistons!

The beginning of the NBA season is so fun. Everyone is healthy (unless you’re a 76ers fan). Everyone is fresh and playing hard.

And we have no idea what’s going on. The Lakers are 3-0! The Nuggets and Kings are 0-2? Cam Thomas is actually making a run at the scoring title? Franz Wagner is shooting well again!

What’s real?!

I’ll be the first to say that I have no idea. Now is the time of year when we point at our preseason predictions that look good and give ourselves a pat on the back while the other predictions get ignored because “they’ll come around”. So, when the Nuggets look bad out of the gate, I say, “Don’t worry, they’ll be fine.”

In reality, all we can really do is keep an eye on these early-season trends and watch them closely. Things typically start to stabilize somewhere in the 10-20 game window. Until then, numbers lie to you.

So, let’s look at a few of these trends I’ll be watching closely these next few weeks.

What’s going on with the Nuggets offense?

Did someone forget to set the Nuggets players’ alarm clock to let them know the season was starting? Because the first two games have been a little rough…

The Nuggets are currently sporting the worst offense in the NBA after two straight games where they have looked stuck in the mud.

Even when Jokic is on the floor, they go through one action and shoot at the first sliver of daylight or go through that action and then stand around while Jokic attacks. They’ve lacked a certain something… like they’ve lost the plot on what their offense is supposed to be.

That’s Michael Porter Jr. — a career 40.8% shooter from deep and someone who finished 12th in made three-pointers last year — giving up a wide-open, in-rhythm jumper to pass it to Aaron Gordon — a career 32.2% shooter from three who made 180 fewer threes than Porter last year alone.

Here is Jokic having to go one-on-five in the paint — nobody on the Clippers is paying any attention to their shooters. I’m not going to criticize Jokic for missing the pass to the corner — he has eyes in the back of his head and if that pass was there, I’m sure he would’ve thrown it. Can we get a cut though? Anything to force the Clippers to not just stare at Jokic?

It gets even worse without Jokic on the floor. The team is shooting an abysmal 22.2% without Jokic, and its offensive rating is 60.9 points per 100 possessions. Which is just… so bad…

Through two games, Jokic has an on/off of +32.8 points per 100 possessions — an absolutely absurd number.

Something will have to give here. I don’t anticipate the Nuggets being this bad all year. Head coach, Michael Malone will find lineup combinations that work. Michael Porter Jr. is going to shoot better than 3-16 from three. Jamal Murray will shoot better. They’re going to be fine — but, they need to wake up.

The Bucks defense may be as bad as we thought…

I came into the year low on the Bucks mostly due to their perimeter defense and depth. And the perimeter defense has been basically what I expected when I watched their game against the Bulls. (See? Confirmation bias!)

Here’s Gary Trent Jr. top-locking Zach Lavine in the corner and getting backdoored.

What is Delon Wright doing here? I don’t know if he gets lost or what. But he forces Damian Lillard to come over to prevent an easy layup for Zach Lavine, instead giving up a wide-open three to Coby White.

Taurean Prince gets a little over-exuberant applying ball pressure to Josh Giddey — only to get blown by. (This is a nice runner finish by Giddey over Brook Lopez who had some nice moments defending the rim in this one.)

Against the Bulls, the Bucks frequently had their perimeter defenders playing high ball pressure while allowing Giannis and Lopez to play in deep drops. But, their perimeter defenders aren’t quick or physical enough to stay in front on the perimeter.

I don’t know what the answer is — Doc Rivers is way smarter than I am and has played and watched more basketball than I ever will. But, I’m not convinced this is the best defensive strategy for them. I will be watching this closely over the next few weeks to see if this was a fluke or will be the norm.

Is the Cade Cunningham explosion happening?

CADE CUNNINGHAM! Is it happening?!

The former first-overall pick in the draft has had a dream start to the season. (Individually at least — the Pistons are still 0-3.) Armed with real spacing for the first time, Cunningham has upped his game, scoring 27.3 points, 8.0 assists, and 5.0 rebounds per game on a 52.2 true shooting percentage (that true shooting percentage is just below average).

New coach, JB Bickerstaff, has embraced using Cade’s size to play out of the post against mismatches — he is one of four players to have 10 or more recorded post-up possessions so far. (He had 41 all of last season.) He’s done so effectively, registering 1.2 points per possession when he shoots out of them.

He has been a high-volume shooter inside the arc, ranking tenth in shot attempts in the restricted area, fifth in the paint outside the restricted area, and second in midrange shots. In particular, Cade has been elite in operating out of floater range, shooting 10-16 in his first three games.

One criticism: the Pistons have elected to give Cade the ball at the top of the arc frequently with little movement around him. That forces him to attack against a set defense, with everyone staring at him. I’d like to see the Pistons try to incorporate a little movement at the beginning of these actions — particularly late in the game when their offense has bogged down. (They have a 93.0 offensive rating in the fourth quarter with a 30.2% field goal percentage.) Running Cade off a staggered or flare screen where he already has an advantage or mismatch when he gets the ball should help them not feel like they’re repeatedly driving into walls over and over again at the ends of games.

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