Are the Warriors Young Guns Ready?
Can the Warriors 3rd year players take the next step that brings the Warriors back into contention again?
In the 2021 NBA draft, the Golden State Warriors took two then-19-year-olds with the #7 (Jonathan Kuminga) and #14 (Moses Moody) picks hoping to complete the young core that would lead their two-timeline approach. They already had James Wiseman from the previous year’s draft and Jordan Poole was preparing to take a big leap forward. Two years later, James Wiseman and Jordan Poole are gone while Kuminga and Moody have bounced in and out of Steve Kerr’s rotation for the past two seasons leaving the Warriors two-timeline approach in shambles.
The team brings back one of the strongest starting fives in basketball with Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, and Kevon Looney. This starting five was an astonishing +145 in only 331 minutes together (for context, this +/- was second in the league last year to the championship-winning Denver Nuggets starting lineup that was +201 in 706 regular-season minutes - if you do the math, that’s over twice the amount of minutes for an extra +66 points). It was a dominant lineup and likely will be the primary starting lineup for the Warriors this year as well. (That said, Kerr is known for adjusting his lineups frequently so you can count on other players getting the chance to start as well.)
The rest of the rotation has been overhauled this offseason as Jordan Poole, Donte DiVincenzo, and JaMychal Green are all on new teams while Chris Paul, Dario Saric, and Cory Joseph are the new additions. (Gary Payton II could also be considered a newcomer as he only played in seven regular-season games after starting the season with the Blazers and missing time with an injury after he returned to Golden State.) Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody are the only mainstays remaining.
(The Warriors also drafted two older college players in Trace Jackson-Davis and Brandin Podziemski who both have a chance of breaking into the rotation. As the Warriors core ages, they will likely play fewer minutes per game this season leaving the door open for more minutes from the bench players.)
In replacing Poole with Paul, the Warriors lose a little bit of scoring but infinitely increase their playmaking, decrease their turnovers, and improve their defense (Paul averaged 8.9 assists/game with 1.9 turnovers/game whereas Poole averaged 4.5APG with a whopping 3.1 TO/game). Although Paul isn’t as good of a defender as he was when he was a spring chicken, he will still always be in the right place at the right time (Defensive Box Plus-Minus (DBPM) of +1.2 last year compared to -1.8 for Poole), make plays on the ball (1.5 steals/game compared to 0.8SPG for Poole), and give the team versatility in who he guards. No longer will the Warriors have to worry about plays like these two below:
You can see the frustration here in Draymond’s reaction to Poole obliviously leaving a top 10 shooter in the league (Trey Murphy) to close out on a poor shooter (Herb Jones) when Draymond is already guarding him from a distance.
Play #2:
(This is pretty mean, but, if you want to do a deep dive on Poole’s turnovers, this link is a TWENTY-minute compilation video that someone on Reddit created of every live-ball turnover this past season from Poole. Yes, I said twenty. No, it doesn’t even include his multitude of travels and carries because those are considered dead-ball turnovers.)
Analysts have raised alarms that Paul won’t be able to fit into Steve Kerr’s fast-paced motion offense because of his tendency to slow down the offense with pick-and-rolls. Paul’s quality of play has also been steadily declining as he battles Father Time. However, Paul is one of the smartest players of the past twenty years and can fit into any scheme and thrive even as he ages. His genius playmaking opens up the Warriors offense to be able to have two elite playmakers on the floor next to Klay and Steph which was a hallmark during their glory days with Draymond and Andre Iguodala. He will also provide a steady hand when Steph or Draymond is off the floor and should be a great mentor to Kuminga (more on that later).
Replacing DiVincenzo with Payton seems like a lateral move to me. Payton is a capable shooter but doesn’t bring the volume or on-the-move shooting that DiVincenzo brought. But, their defense should be much better with Payton’s long, havoc-wreaking arms chasing the opponent’s best perimeter player around the court. Where DiVincenzo struggled trying to contain the quickest guards and best wings at times, Payton should render that problem mute.
(Getting Wiggins back for a full season after only playing 37 games last year should also help their defense. I think Golden State’s inability to consistently contain the ball and put a stopper on the floor was a sneaky, significant factor in their drop from 2nd in 2022 to 14th last season in defense. Their defense should get back into the top 10 this season by re-adding Wiggins and Payton and subtracting Poole from the rotation).
Saric provides many of the same qualities as Green with shooting, okay defense, and versatility to play the 4 or the 5. Last year was a bit of a lost season for him as he was coming off an ACL tear the previous season. He should be better this year as he regains some mobility and gets comfortable in their motion offense. Despite his low draft status, Trayce Jackson-Davis should also be ready early in the season and will likely provide some backup forward minutes.
All that said, one of the biggest x-factors of this season for the Warriors is going to be the growth of Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody. If the Warriors are going to get back into championship contender status, one of Kuminga or Moody will have to turn into a reliable AND impactful 20mpg rotation player.
Kuminga is one of the best cutters in the game. As soon as his defender turns his head, Kuminga is backdooring for an easy dunk or a putback dunk.
Last season, per NBA.com, Kuminga ranked 17th out 73 players with at least 76 possessions as a cutter at 1.42 points-per-possession (PPP). He had the highest EFG% of those 73 players (he also had the 4th highest TO% highlighting one of his bigger offensive faults). Putting him around another elite passer should only emphasize this skill for the Warriors.
The Warriors would also be wise to use Chris Paul - the preeminent pick-and-roll maestro of the past twenty years - to teach Kuminga the art of the pick-and-roll. Kuminga’s pick-and-roll game is mostly limited to rolling right now but a connection with Paul should open up the horizons of his game to learn how to perform the synchronous dance of an exquisite two-man game.
On ball, Kuminga is still a work in progress. In isolation situations, he struggled to gain separation and get to the basket. His go-to “move” was to barrel into or try to drive past his defender. This usually led to a tough 15-footer over the defense that often missed. Kuminga ranked in the 38th percentile in isolations and the 12th percentile in post-up situations per NBA.com. To become a reliable scorer, he’ll need to develop a few go-to moves and counter-moves. I don’t see that becoming a big part of his game this year but it’s still possible for later in his career (he’s still only 21 which is two years younger than the Warriors new draft pick Trayce Jackson-Davis).
Defensively, when engaged, Kuminga is one of the best perimeter stoppers in the league. He will fight over every screen, deny every handoff, and make life as difficult as possible for his man.
You can feel the aggressiveness change when Kuminga is not on his man vs when he is. Check out these clips below. In the first clip, Ingram is forced off the ball almost as soon as he comes off the screen. In the second clip, Ingram takes his time and goes right at Anthony Lamb. This was a consistent theme throughout this game where Ingram would get off the ball when Kuminga was on him or he would attack aggressively when it was someone else.
He’ll occasionally work so hard to deny his man that he’ll leave himself susceptible to being backdoored.
This is the price you pay when you make 90% of the possessions for an offense difficult (as a bonus, he’s got one of the best help defenders of all time behind him in Draymond Green to bail him out when this happens).
He still falls asleep off the ball occasionally and misses rotations but these are young player mistakes. Kuminga came into the league at 19 years old and he’s getting better at a fast trajectory. These mistakes were less frequent last year than in his rookie year and should be even less frequent this upcoming year.
Despite the favor that Kerr has shown Kuminga in the regular season, he has yet to break through the playoff rotation. Moses Moody is the opposite. Moody’s minutes were sporadic at best throughout the regular season but he seemingly became the 7th man when the Warriors were in the playoffs the past two seasons.
On offense, Moody keeps the ball moving and hits open shots. On defense, he is always alert and in help position. He has all the makings of a quality role player. But, there’s just something… lacking… about his game. Whenever he’s on the floor, he just doesn’t seem to make an impact. He’s got the Patrick Williams syndrome from the Bulls.
In the second half of last year, he had exactly 3 games where he scored more than 10 points. He had 5 steals and 2 blocks in those games. Granted, his minutes were limited in the second half of the regular season, but he’s often invisible out there. He doesn’t make many mistakes but he doesn’t make many plays either.
Don’t get me wrong, Moody is a quality role player. He has all the skills to be a consistent 20 minutes/game guy for the Warriors this year. Steve Kerr has trusted him to play important minutes in playoff games. But, I just want him to insert himself a little more into the game and make you notice him. I want a little more urgency to his game. More attacking closeouts and creating open looks for his teammates. More getting into the passing lanes and denying handoffs. More running in transition for open 3’s and layups.
Many analysts have started calling for the Warriors to use Chris Paul’s expiring contract and the young players in a win-now trade to get another star player to capitalize one last time with the Curry-Thompson-Green core. Jerami Grant is an intriguing name that becomes trade-eligible on January 24th. He would give the Warriors another wing defender who can create his shot and knock down open threes to pair with Andrew Wiggins. A lineup of Curry, Thompson, Wiggins, Grant, and Green would be one of the best (if not the best) and star-studded lineups in the league. But, before that happens, the revamped bench unit and improving young guns will have 40-50 games to prove they are good enough now not to warrant this kind of trade.
As a Warriors fan, I would be very upset with a trade of the young core. I think Kuminga has the ability to develop himself into an all-star but the young mistakes will continue to cause Kerr not to play him. Hopefully they make the turn!