More Early Season Observations! A Defensive Superstar is Budding on the Most Interesting Team in the League
Plus a Nuggets wing emerging and thoughts on another three-point explosion
The NBA season is humming along, quickly approaching the end of the first month of the season. Many teams have already played ten or more games and have started the NBA Cup. (I love The Cup for many reasons — but, weirdly, I love it most for the courts that make your eyes burn just a little as you focus on the screen.)
The first month of the season reveals flashes — it sparks concerns about certain players and teams (uh, everything okay over in Philly and Milwaukee?) while giving us hope about other players and teams (party while you can Cleveland!). The second month is when many trends start to solidify.
Over the next month, we’ll learn just how for real Cleveland is (they’ve played one of the easiest schedules to date — can they continue their winning ways against the league’s best?), whether the Bucks are as bad as they seem, and if the Thunder defense is actually this good. (I thought the Thunder defense would be the best in the league — how could it not be when you add maybe the best defensive guard in the league plus another strong rim protector and get a year of growth from Chet Holmgren — I don’t think any of us thought they would be ten points per 100 possessions better than than the second best. We’ll see if their perimeter-oriented defense is enough without any centers on the active roster — get well soon Chet and Isaiah!)
But, before all that, we still have early-season trends emerging. Let’s look at a few including the Houston Rockets budding young guys, Denver’s resurgence, and my thoughts on the three-point explosion.
Tari Eason, Defensive Superstar
The story of the Houston Rockets season can largely be told by two young players: Jalen Green and Tari Eason.
After handing Jalen Green a big contract, they’re giving him the chance to earn it as he’s taking about two more shots per game compared to last year. (For whatever reason, despite giving Alperen Sengun an even larger contract, they’re running less of the offense through him and his numbers are down accordingly.) Green is more attentive and is putting more effort into defense while the offense has been hit or miss to me — too many long, pull-up threes early in the shot clock and not enough getting into the paint and making the right play.
But, late in games, the offense is running through Jalen and is kind of working — they are 4-3 with a +12 scoring margin when the score is within five points with under five minutes to go. They have a top-ten offense and defense in fourth quarters. As much as I want to see more Sengun in the fourth quarters, it’s hard to blame coach Ime Udoka when the results are working.
Tari Eason has exploded into the season. He is a defensive artist, averaging almost two steals and one block per game — one of only six players to achieve that feat who has played more than half of his team’s games.
His defensive style is reminiscent of peak-Kawhi Leonard — don’t go near him if you don’t have a tight handle on the ball.
Sometimes, he forces the ball handler into a loose handle.
This is the kind of play that an older brother bullies his younger brother into in the driveway.
All this has led to Eason quickly becoming one of Coach Udoka’s favorites, closing in all five of their last close games — frequently over Sengun. Udoka seems to love Eason’s versatility on defense — for good reason. (Udoka is also frequently closing with Amen Thompson, creating a long-armed, do-it-all wing lineup at the end of games.) Eason allows the Rockets to switch everything, bogging the game down and forcing more turnovers. He isn’t as good a rebounder as Sengun, but the defense has made up for it.
Eason has a BPM of 8.0 — sixth in the league — with all of the other major advanced stats pointing to how impactful he has been. The Rockets will have tough decisions to make over the coming years. (They can’t and certainly won’t pay all these young guys when the time comes. Their ownership has been notoriously cheap even when they are contenders.) But, Eason is making an early case that he should be considered one of the main dudes.
Christian Braun is a Legit Starter
The Nuggets slow bleed of talent is not a problem because they haven’t had players ready to take over the abandoned roles. The problem is there is no one ready to take the next guy’s spot.
Christian Braun was ready to take over Bruce Brown’s minutes last year. Peyton Watson performed admirably for most of the season in the Jeff Green role last year. And, now Braun is excelling as the new fifth starter in place of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.
The problem is nobody remaining on the bench is ready to fill real minutes — the Nuggets have gone from eight capable rotation players to five or six. Hence, Jokic is sporting the highest on-off of his career at +37.4 per Basketball Reference. (No offense to the Nuggets bench players; I believe Strawther can be ready when the playoffs come and Russell Westbrook plays a valuable role for them off the bench.) But, this has been harped on and debated too many times already. Instead, I want to celebrate the emergence of Braun who is ready and has been awesome in his new role next to the three-time MVP.
Braun has been a perfect complement to Jokic, playing 344 of his total 353 next to the big man. (Denver has traditionally preferred to keep at least one starter next to Jokic at all times. In the past, they left Gordon out there but have swapped Gordon for Braun this season so far.) He’s more than doubled his scoring from 7.3 PPG to 16.3 (he’s also playing about 15 more minutes per game) with increased efficiency due to his excellent shooting at the rim and behind the line.
His partnership with Jokic is born out of his ability to find the crease in the defense — he’s always in the right place at the right time. As soon as his defender turns his head, he cuts.
He is a terror in transition, finishing the second most transition possessions in the league to this point. (Westbrook has certainly helped with this as well. The Nuggets are running for the first time since becoming Jokic-centric with the 10th-fastest pace in the league.)
He also seems to provide a downhill edge that they’ve sorely missed from their offense ever since they swapped Will Barton for Caldwell-Pope. He explodes to the rim with a burst and decisiveness that catches opponents off-guard.
Denver’s preferred starting lineup — Jokic, Gordon, Porter Jr., Braun, and Murray — is again one of the best in the league at a strong +38 in 118 minutes. They rank third in net rating for all 5-man lineups who have played more than 50 minutes together (+14.9). Jokic is the main reason for their performance but Braun is not simply along for the ride either.
Denver is 7-1 after their distastrous 0-2 start. They’re 11th in net rating and 9th in Simple Rating System from Basketball Reference which takes into account their point differential and their strength of schedule. They’ve beaten OKC and Dallas in that time with their only loss being a close one at Minnesota. No, they haven’t been and are not as good as they are last year. But, they aren’t as bad as their start had us thinking either. They should stay in the hunt for a playoff spot as long as Jokic is on the floor.
Does More Three-Pointers Actually Mean Better Offense?
Every year, one or two teams break the record for the highest offensive rating in NBA history. Last year, the Boston Celtics set the record at 122.2 en route to another championship. The year before was the Kings at 118.6. The Nets were two years before that at 117.3. And the Mavericks were before that at 115.9. It’s been a continuous cycle for years.
There are many reasons for this. The rise of heliocentrism and specialized players has made a difference. A decrease in midrange jumpers increased efficiency. But, more than anything, the continual rise in offense can be attributed to embracing the three-pointer.
If you’ve been following the league for some time, you already know this. You’ve likely heard someone complain about this phenomenon with rule changes to fix it. (I’m still open to seeing what the game looks like with no corner threes.)
However, many don’t realize there has been a leaguewide stagnation in three-point attempts with the league average hovering around 34-35 threes per game (3PA/game) since 2019-20. It only looked like teams were shooting more and more threes. It seemed that teams had found the sweet spot between shots at the rim and behind the line.
Then this season started.
The Celtics set the tone for the season by tying the record for most three-pointers in a single game in the first two and a half hours of the regular season. They are currently on pace to shatter the 2018-19 Rockets record of 45.38 with an astounding 50.8 3PA/game. (!!!) And, they have the second-best offense in the league to date.
Leaguewide, three-pointers are up by about 2.1 3PA/game. (It’s only up by 1.5 3PA/game without the Celtics eschewing the data.) And, while offensive rating is down compared to last season, it is actually up compared to this time last year. (Offense tends to start slow and get better as the season goes. Based on the rate of improvement from the beginning of the year to the end of each of the past two seasons, we will likely see the record for offensive rating broken again this year.)
So, is there a breaking point? Can a team shoot too many threes before it hinders their offense?
The key to having the best offense in the league is not to take the most three-pointers — but, instead, the key is to take the most efficient shots for your players. Let me explain.
You must score the most points per possession to have the best offense in the league. That means maximizing the chance of scoring on each possession by limiting turnovers and getting the best shot possible. This year, the league average is 1.13 points per possession. That’s essentially equal to shooting 37.7% from three or 56.5% from inside the arc (or on a pair of free throws).
So, any possession that ends with a player shooting a shot that they make at a clip of 37.7% from three or 56.5% from two would be considered an average possession. (Pretty much nobody shoots that well from inside and outside the arc. Teams make up for it by shooting WAY above 56.5% from the free throw line.)
Let’s go back to the Celtics who are shooting 51.1 threes per game at a 36% clip but 57.4% from two. That’s only 1.08 points per possession from three and 1.148 points per possession from two. So, by this math, the Celtics are actually leaving points on the table per possession by taking too many low-percentage threes and not enough twos or free throws where they have the third and second-best percentages respectively in the league.
(Is it that simple? Not really, no. You can bring in all sorts of factors like the Celtics shooting above league average from three despite taking so many more threes than everyone else. Celtics opponents usually have to crush them from inside the arc and at the free throw line to make up the difference.)
So, does more three-pointers actually mean better offense? It can, yes… but not always.
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