The Most Confusing Rosters
So... what exactly is the plan here?
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Dear Mr. Silver,
Over the past few years, September has broken the dog days of the NBA offseason with major trades as front offices make final adjustments to their team.
Damian Lillard was mercifully traded to the Bucks on September 27th last year with Jrue Holiday going to the Celtics a few days later. James Harden was dealt to the Clippers at the beginning of November. Donovan Mitchell was shipped to the Cavs two years ago on September 3rd while Bojan Bogdanovic was sent to the Pistons on the 26th.
History would tell us that we’re still likely to see one or two trades before the start of training camp. Let’s look at a few of the most confusing teams and if we can expect any moves to be made.
New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans have been hovering around the play-in for years, finishing 9th, 9th, and 7th the past three years in the west. Their front office is clearly tired of mediocrity after making a win-now trade for Dejounte Murray, sending away former top-10 pick Dyson Daniels and backup center Larry Nance Jr. plus two first-round picks. (They also lost their starting center, Jonas Valanciunas, to the Washington Wizards.)
The Pels now feature a talented rotation including Dejounte Murray, CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram, Trey Murphy III, Herb Jones, and, of course, Zion Williamson.
The issue? Too much positional overlap and a gaping hole at center. This team is the epitome of talent over fit.
Zion and Herb are best suited to play the power forward position though Herb can also slide to small forward. Ingram and Murphy are best suited to play small forward. McCollum can play shooting guard, but that would force one of Ingram or Jones to the bench. And, none of them can play center.
With all of the positional overlap, Ingram was forced to play almost 70% of his minutes at shooting guard the past two seasons per Basketball Reference — and consequently, also had his worst on/off numbers since his early days in New Orleans. In particular, the defense suffered giving up almost three points per 100 possessions more with Ingram on the floor as he struggled to chase guards around the perimeter.
The Pelicans don’t have a starting-caliber center heading into this year with Daniel Theis likely penciled in to be the starter. They drafted a center, Yves Missi, in the first round; yet, he was outplayed by Karlo Matkovic — a career international player — during summer league. It’s probably the worst center rotation in the league.
On top of that, their offense functions best when Point Zion is the initiator. I’m curious how that will be impacted with the addition of Murray — a more natural point guard who didn’t exactly thrive next to the ball-dominant Trae Young.
Can the Pels make it work? Perhaps, it’s a talented group.
Zion is a top 10-15 player when he’s healthy — it’s just keeping him healthy that’s the issue. Although Ingram has been maligned for years for his insistence on shooting mid-range jumpers and being somewhat of a ball-stopper, he has consistently averaged over 20 points per game and five assists while limiting turnovers — that is nothing to sneeze at. Similarly, Murray is a great passer and positional rebounder who scores over 20 points per game. McCollum hasn’t scored less than 20 points per game since 2014-15 (!) and is a bomber from three. Murphy is one of the best young shooters in the game and a quality defender.
That’s four guys who can score over 20 consistently while setting up their teammates. I’m not sure any team outside the Celtics can boast the offensive depth of the Pelicans.
(One thing to watch this year: despite having three of the best bombers in the league in Murphy, McCollum, and Jordan Hawkins, the Pelicans finished 23rd in three-point attempts per 100 possessions last year. To become a top-five offense — an absolute requirement given the likelihood of their defense being bad — they will have to significantly increase those attempts.)
It all gets even more complicated with Ingram and Murphy’s contracts set to expire at the end of this year. Both will expect pay increases with Ingram targeting the 30% max and Murphy desiring to earn a 25% max. Here’s why that makes things complicated:
The Pelicans have never once paid the luxury tax in their history of existence.
If the Pelicans were to give both of them their full max contracts, they would zoom past the second apron and be roughly $30-40 million over the tax next year.
If the Pelicans want to avoid the luxury tax next season, they need to trade one of them — preferably Ingram given he will earn about $12 million more than Murphy on max contracts and is not suited for the position he is forced to play on this roster. (If they keep just Murphy, they will likely push right up against the tax line after adding other players to the group.)
You could argue the Pels ownership should finally empty their checkbooks a little bit and pay the tax… but, is this really the team to do that with? They haven’t finished better than seventh in the West in the past five years. This Pelicans team probably needs to prove it first.
With the existing roster construction flaws and money crunch bearing down on them, this team is ripe for a trade — if they can find a suitor for Ingram. Most analysts assume whoever trades for Ingram will be under the gun to give him a maximum contract next offseason. The presumption far and wide is that would immediately be viewed as a negative contract. (One question I have: if nobody believes that Ingram is worth the max, why do the Pelicans (or whoever they trade him to) have to pay him that? Shouldn’t the market dictate his contract?)
I’ve spent time looking for an Ingram trade but can’t find one that makes sense for both sides and works financially. If I’m the Pels front office, I’m looking for 1) a starting center with a smaller long-term salary (less than $20 million initially) and 2) an expiring contract to match Ingram’s salary and get them below the tax this season. A Jarrett Allen trade is probably the closest they can find — except he’s not allowed to be traded until February after signing an extension with the Cavs this summer.
Trading Murphy is probably a non-starter given he makes less than $6 million this year — they’ll never find a starting-caliber center at that value.
Based on all this, I suspect the Pelicans will stand pat at the start of the season and see how far their offensive depth can take them.
Portland Trail Blazers
I don’t really know what the Blazers are doing.
Last offseason, they acquired DeAndre Ayton, Jrue Holiday, and picks in the Damian Lillard saga then traded Holiday for Robert Williams III — a player well-established as a starter in this league and someone who is not a good fit next to Ayton — and a few more picks. Then, this offseason, they drafted Donovan Clingan with their top-10 pick — another center who can’t space the floor.
What exactly is the plan here?
I’m assuming they wanted to flip Williams for value at the trade deadline which is a fine strategy. It just didn’t work out given he was injured all last year. Perhaps he will rebuild his value and be traded at the deadline this year.
I thought they traded for Ayton as their center of the future given his large contract and low trade value. Drafting Clingan suggests otherwise.
Williams and Ayton’s contracts expire at the end of the 2025-26 season — two seasons from now. Maybe Clingan plays behind them for his first two seasons before taking over as the starter after that. I’m not a huge fan of this strategy — the offense will likely be excruciatingly bad with Clingan next to another big. I’m also worried it will stunt both Clingan’s (as he plays out of position) and Scoot Henderson’s (as he is forced to drive into barricade after barricade) growth.
I’m not against drafting via the best-man-available approach — but I’m not really a proponent of drafting a guy who does not make sense within your roster construction either. Particularly when wings like Cody Williams or Matas Buzelis were available, who would’ve fit snugly next to their future core of Scoot, Shaedon Sharpe, Anfernee Simons, and Ayton.
At the draft, the Blazers also made a strange trade for Deni Advija as if he was the missing piece to help them contend. The value they gave up is fine — two 1sts and two 2nds. But, why is a team that is probably going to finish bottom five in the league again trading future assets for a role player?
Perhaps there’s an underlying plan that I’m missing. But a roster full of small guards and non-shooting centers seems like a strange start. There’s a small chance one of the centers gets traded before the season — but a trade at the deadline is more likely.
Utah Jazz
Most people whose basketball opinions I respect were okay with the Lauri Markannen deal. I’m diverging from that — I don’t get it.
The Jazz have been a mediocre team since the end of the Rudy Gobert-Donovan Mitchell era, finishing with fewer than 38 wins in both seasons. That must be taken with a caveat, however, as they were forced to shut down Lauri and all of the other veterans to get a better draft pick.
With Lauri, this team is a below-average team that can’t compete in the West — but they’re too good to get one of the best lottery picks. Without Lauri, they are one of the worst teams in basketball.
By signing him to a new deal instead of trading him, the Jazz have foregone the ability to trade him until next offseason, locking themselves into repeating the same season they have the past two seasons. They will win too many games early on in the season to compete for the best lottery picks… but not be good enough to make the playoffs. Then, sometime around February or March, they will shut down Lauri for a minor injury so they can properly lose their way out of play-in contention and get the 9th pick in the draft.
Not exactly a glorious season.
It seems they’re positioning themselves to acquire another star to put next to Lauri — a similar strategy the Nets were trying with Mikal Bridges. That’s a difficult strategy to pull off though. The Knicks waited for years for a star to become available — only to have to settle on a high-level starter in Bridges. (Don’t get me wrong — the trade for Bridges was great for them, he’s just not Joel Embiid or Donovan Mitchell or whoever else they were initially hoping to land.) The Nets waited one year for a star to pair with Bridges only to eventually give up and trade him away putting themselves firmly on track to be one of the two worst teams in the NBA.
Hoarding your assets and waiting for the perfect star to become available can be a fool’s errand.
This is a roster full of young talent, but likely lacking the star pieces required to truly contend. They need higher draft picks to give themselves the best shot at finding one of those players. In particular, this upcoming draft class is supposed to be one of the best draft classes we’ve seen in some time — and the Jazz will probably miss out due to being too far back in the lottery.
Perhaps they will find that star player to pair with Lauri — let’s hope they don’t waste years of his prime miring in mediocrity waiting for that star to become available.
But, more likely, due to the trade restrictions on Lauri from his new contract, the Jazz will waste this season and trade him next offseason for more future assets and young talent.