Wemby's Resurgence and Brandon Miller's Subtle Improvements
Maybe we spoke too soon about Wemby's shooting... Plus, the Magic's new twin tower look
This week, we’re taking a look at three topics around the NBA: Victor Wembanyama proving everyone wrong, the subtle improvements in Brandon Miller’s game, and the Magic trying out a new look. Let’s dive in!
Wemby’s Path to Becoming an Offensive Superstar
By now, you’ve probably heard the discourse around Victor Wembanyama’s second season: “He’s inefficient and hasn’t made any improvements on offense. He needs to be in the paint more!” cries Generic Media Member A. But, is that actually true?
It’s true that Wemby got off to a bad start from behind the arc over his first couple weeks leading to the narrative that he was shooting the wrong shots. Through his first nine games of 2024, he shot an abysmal 22.6% on 62 three-point attempts. But, he has since righted the ship and has been on a heater for the last half of November and early December (ten-game span) where he made 40.5% on over 11 threes per game. Over the 19 games he’s played so far, he is actually shooting a higher percentage from three (34.1%) on almost double the attempts from last year. That is an improvement! His three-point percentage is still slightly below league average (current NBA three-point average is 35.9%) but his EFG% and TS% are well above average. Where will his three-point percentage average out? If Wemby finishes the season around 34-35% from three on over nine attempts per game, that’s not bad! In time, he probably should be at least at league average if he’s going to take that many.
That said, much of Wemby’s jump shooting comes at the expense of plays in the paint. His average shot distance has jumped from 13 feet to 17.3 feet while his percentage of shots within three feet has fallen from 29% to 22% and his free throw attempts per 100 possessions have dropped from 8.3 to 5.4. I just don’t think Wemby will ever be as good of a shooter as a guy like Zach Lavine — so, I’d like to see a shot diet that looks a little less like his.
Part of this is due to the Spurs offense from this season — they are running more of their offense using Jeremy Sochan and others as the roller with Wemby spotting up on the perimeter or in the dunkers spot.
This leaves Wemby on the perimeter as the floor spacer and takes away the chance of him getting lobs as the roller. Wemby is also using his opportunities as the roller to “pop” instead of “roll” more often than last season.
The Spurs and Wemby are embracing the modern shot diet — for better or worse. Unfortunately for the Spurs, Wemby chasing more threes is not necessarily winning the math contest: he shoots 84.2% from within three feet — equivalent to about 1.68 points per possession. In other words, he would have to shoot 56.1% from three to match his production in the restricted area. Now, that’s not entirely fair — it’s unrealistic to expect a majority of his shots to come from within three feet when he does so much self-creation. (And, even if he did, those paint shots may not actually be more efficient than him shooting from three — his 51.3% from 3-10 feet is equivalent to his 34.1% from three in terms of points per possession.) But, I think it’s fair to want one or two “pops” replaced with a rim run to give him a chance to score more often from right next to the rim. (Not to mention getting fouled more often where Wemby excels with an 80.7% FT%.)
When he is on the perimeter, Wemby is a good ball handler and passer already — but, for him to take the next step as an offensive player, I’d like to see him improve his ball handling and decision-making to take better advantage of his feared jump shot and get more shots inside the paint. He’s still getting pressured into a few too many mistakes.
These are young player mistakes — it’s okay that he’s still having them! It’s encouraging that he’s looking for his teammates and has the vision to find them — it’s clear that he wants to be unselfish and make the right play. If (and when?) these parts of his game are refined, we’ll be discussing Wemby as an MVP candidate and not “just” an All-Star.
(Of course, we can’t talk about Wemby and not mention his defense. He is the deserved frontrunner for Defensive Player of the Year. He eliminates and deters shots at the rim at a frequency that no other big matches. I tend to lean towards comparing players to peers at their positions when voting for DPOY — meaning that if a perimeter defender is hands and feet above everyone else at his position, I would vote for him over a big who may be more valuable to his team’s defense but is not that different from other centers. In my mind, this awards the best defensive player, not just the most “valuable”. But even with that, I would vote for Wemby over Dyson Daniels, Tari Eason, Evan Mobley, or any other contender.)
Brandon Miller’s Improvement
Of last season’s top three finishers in the Rookie of the Year race, Miller has been discussed the least this year — mostly because he plays on a bad team and has been overshadowed by his audacious teammate, Lamelo Ball. But, Miller has also improved this season in subtle ways.
Miller is clearly more comfortable compared to last year — he’s playing with a better pace and is more confident shooting. He’s upped his three-point attempt rate by about 10% — that translates to about four more threes per game — while maintaining an above-average percentage (about 37% — right in line with his percentage last year). He is taking audacious threes with a quick trigger — leave him open for a second and the ball is going up. It’s only gotten more audacious since Lamelo went down with a calf injury.
The Hornets have loved to use him as a ghost screener with Lamelo or coming off flare screens.
He was praised for his passing when entering the league and has only improved since then— he’s up to an 18% assist rate compared to only 11% last season. (18% is not elite — it’s in line with players like Anthony Edwards and DeMar DeRozan — but it’s pretty good for a wing playing as his team’s second option.)
If I can knitpick Miller’s game: I would love to see him get to the line more often. Of 134 players who have scored more than 25% of their buckets via self-creation (i.e. a basket that’s not assisted), Miller ranks 111th in percent of his points from the free throw line. He almost never shoots in the paint and does so inefficiently when he does. This results in a below-average true-shooting percentage (a measure that accounts for two’s and three’s as well as free throws) despite shooting so well and so often from three.
That said, the advanced metrics have taken notice of Miller’s improved game: he’s moved into the range of other quality starter players in PER, Win Shares, BPM, and VORP.
No, Miller isn’t an all-star (yet?). But, he is turning into a very good player who, at the very least, can be a solid complementary piece on a championship team for a long time to come.
The Magic’s Twin Tower Lineups
Franz Wagner has gotten all the attention recently — and deservedly so — but the Magic have been trying something new in their lineups that’s worth monitoring.
(The injury to Franz is such a bummer. He was on track to be a surefire All-Star selection with the chance to make an All-NBA team. The Magic’s offense will likely crater even further — they were already 24th in offensive rating prior to the injury. But, I’m very curious what will happen to their defense.
Franz is their best big wing defender. In his final game before the fateful oblique injury, he shadowed George around the court making things difficult for him. He tries hard, fights over screens, and plays with active hands.
Here, Franz gets over 4 different screens before he gets his hands on a pass and gets the steal.
Without Franz, Jonathan Isaac needs to stay healthy. It will mean more minutes for sophomore Jett Howard and increased responsibility on defense. It will likely also mean that defensive stars Jalen Suggs and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will have to guard up and defend players much bigger than them. I’ll be monitoring if their defense drops at all without Franz.)
Okay, sidenote done, the Magic have turned to a twin tower look over the past few weeks. Wendell Carter Jr. and Goga Bitadze have been starting games together and have been dominant — they are a monstrous +67 in 108 minutes together. Carter and Mo Wagner haven’t been quite as dominant but are a respectable +9 in 27 minutes together.
In particular, the lineups with Carter and Bitadze destroy opponents on the glass collecting over 42% of their team’s misses (that’s 10th out of 1,124 duos to play more than 100 minutes together) while grabbing about 83% of available defensive rebounds. They’re also holding teams to a lowly 51.5% effective field goal percentage.
Of all 5-man lineups to play at least 70 minutes together, the Magic’s recent starting lineup (Bitadze, Carter, Wagner, KCP, and Suggs) leads the league with a +31.9 net rating.
Carter provides just enough spacing — he’s a career 33% shooter from three (not bad for a center) though he’s at only 18.5% so far this season — and playmaking to make it work on offense. Mo Wagner is similar offensively.
But, overall, these lineups are punishing teams with toughness. Watch how Bitadze just overpowers the smaller Kenyon Martin Jr.
There’s almost certainly some noise in this data given the small sample size. The rebounding numbers will likely come back to earth a little bit. Without Wagner and Banchero, there will be a major drop-off in effective self-creation from the perimeter. Wagner was the crux that held everything together on offense without Banchero with his ability to get in the paint and make passes all over the floor. For the Magic to continue playing at the level they have been, they will need Suggs and Co. to step up and show some skills they haven’t displayed before. (I’m particularly interested in Howard — who hasn’t been given much opportunity in his career — and what he can do with likely increased reps.)
Luckily for the Magic, the East stinks and they will likely still be in the top six in the conference when Paolo Banchero comes back.
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