What are the Memphis Grizzlies?

Are the Grizzlies contenders again? Or merely pretenders?

The last time the Memphis Grizzlies were true contenders when the playoffs came around was 2021-22 (they were really good in 2022-23, but fell apart at the end of the season after Morant’s first gun-flashing incident and some Dillon Brooks shenanigans). The team and landscape of the league have completely changed since then.

They are in a similar position to the Nuggets, albeit with far less media scrutiny. They have a transcendent superstar in Ja Morant (he’s not as good as Nikola Jokic but did make 2nd Team All-NBA in his last full season played without getting suspended). They have excellent sidekick pieces in Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane.

JJJ, already with one Defensive Player of the Year award, is a block machine, with long arms and timing that disrupts anyone nearby at the rim. (While he truly is an excellent rim protector, part of the reason for this is that he jumps at everything which disrupts shooters but also leads to a lot of fouls and poor rebounding position.) Bane, already one of the best shooters in the world, continues to get better every season. Last year, with Ja and Marcus Smart injured most of the season, Bane took on more responsibility at point guard helping him grow in his ability to attack off the dribble and playmake for others. That will only help as he moves back into more of a secondary role off of Ja.

Yet, the rest of the roster is a bit of a mess with question marks everywhere after a money-conscious, slow-but-steady talent drain.

Will Zach Edey be good enough to contribute early?

How much does Brandon Clarke have in the tank after a torn Achilles and a lost season? He put up the same numbers per 100 possessions that he always has in the six games he played at the end of last year. Can he shoulder a bigger load than the 20ish minutes per game he has always played?

Why does it feel like training camp injuries to two former second-round picks (Vince Williams Jr. and GG Jackson II) could be vastly detrimental to their team?

Let’s consider this: of the top 11 rotation players from the Grizzlies 2021-22 team that took the eventual champion Warriors to the brink, only four remain (Morant, Bane, Jackson Jr., and Clarke). Even the team from 2022-23 returns only six of the top 11 rotation players — including only three of five starters.

Gone is Dillon Brooks. In comes nobody. Gone is Steven Adams. In comes second-round pick Jaylen Wells (and a few other second-round picks that will likely amount to nothing). Gone is De’Anthony Melton. In comes Danny Green and David Roddy (both players are no longer on the team). Gone is Kyle Anderson. In comes nobody.

Losing Dillon Brooks, Steven Adams, De’Anthony Melton, and Kyle Anderson for rookie Jaylen Wells and a few other future second-round picks over two years is a tough piece of business.

Also mixed in there was trading Tyus Jones and two first-round picks (who became Marcus Sasser and rookie Bub Carrington) for Marcus Smart — while Kristaps Porzingis went to the Celtics as part of the deal. Oof. I have always liked the fit of Smart on the Grizzlies next to Ja — and still do. But, you could’ve never told me that Smart was a better player than Porzingis — yet, somehow Boston got the best player in the deal AND two first-round picks? In hindsight, if the Grizzlies were going to trade Adams away for basically nothing, why not trade for Porzingis instead of Smart?

Smart is heading into his age-30 season. He is a natural replacement for Brooks on defense while also taking the backup PG minutes and some of the load off of Morant. He provides additional ball handling and passing which should help a Grizzlies offense that has never been great at creating open looks for itself. On the downside, Smart may start slowing down or experiencing health concerns after playing so many minutes throughout the many deep Celtics playoff runs.

If Smart can’t stay healthy or isn’t at the same level he was two years ago, the Grizzlies defense — the strength of their contending teams — may take a hit. They need him available to defend at the point of attack and take the load off Morant and Bane.

(Related, one thing to watch for: Smart’s best strength has always been his ability to defend every position comfortably in switch defenses. The Grizzlies will not play in a heavy switch scheme like the Celtics did with him given their slow-footed bigs. Can Smart be elite at defending the best and quickest guards and wings in the league? My guess is yes but time will tell.)

After the starters, the bench rotation gets a little more dicey while manned by untested young players on rookie contracts. (After starting their first preseason game last night, it seems that Zach Edey will get the chance to start at the beginning of the season, though it will likely be a timeshare with Clarke at center. After Clarke, Luke Kennard and John Konchar are the only bench players not on their rookie contracts.)

Edey impressed in one and a half summer league games… but it was only one and a half summer league games. While I’m high on Edey, I’m not taking that to the bank as proof that he will contribute immediately. Reminiscent of Steven Adams, he is a brick wall when he screens people — Ja will love the lanes to the rim that Edey opens up for him.

Admittedly, that’s not the best screen defense, but Edey’s wide shoulders and hips create that wide-open look for Scotty Pippen Jr. (The Grizzlies still have one open roster spot and a gaping hole at backup point guard following the retirement of Derrick Rose. Many believe Pippen will get his two-way deal converted to a standard contract after excelling last season and in Summer League. However, players like Markelle Fultz are still sitting in free agency should the Grizzlies want someone more experienced for those minutes. Should Pippen get converted, expect defense like this:

It was all Keyonte George could do to get off the ball while being hounded on that possession.)

Defensively, Edey is solid in a drop scheme. Using his immense size (and it is immense), he takes away layups from the ball handler (forcing eight-foot runners instead — a difficult shot) while also taking away the lob.

This is against summer league and preseason competition though. The question remains of whether he can do this when Luka Doncic’s brilliance is rumbling down the lane or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s twitchiness is bobbing and weaving through traffic. I think he will be effective eventually but I’m less certain that he will be solid from the jump.

GG Jackson excelled at scoring in his rookie year and throughout Summer League. But, he’s going to be out until at least early December after suffering a fractured foot. And, he’s still very raw with a tendency towards ballhoggery (is that a word?) rather than playing within the flow of the offense. Hopefully, that settles a bit when he’s no longer the star of the show playing next to Morant and Bane. His biggest point of growth needs to be understanding how to play within a team construct.

Santi Aldama is a fine backup big — but probably no more than that. He’s solid positionally on defense with enough versatility to play stints at center when needed. While not much of a shot blocker, he has been a solid rim deterrent — he improved last year to one of the top marks in the league, holding opposing shooters to 8.4% worse when he was the closest defender at the rim. He provides just enough shooting to be a backup power forward without cramping the spacing on the floor too much.

Vince Williams Jr. has good physical tools and the effort levels to be an impactful wing defender. He shot 37.8% from three last season on decent volume while also contributing 3.4 assists per game. Williams attacks the rim with ferocity but does it while keeping his eyes up — a rare trait in players who aren’t primary ball handlers. He’ll likely be out over the first couple weeks of the season after suffering a stress fracture in his tibia; however, he promises to be an important part of the rotation as a primary defender when he returns.

Here, Williams deftly cuts off not one, but two Ingram moves forcing him to heave an inaccurate skip pass to the other side of the floor to not turn it over.

Due to their higher matching salaries, Clarke, Konchar, and Kennard are their only trade chips should they decide they need to upgrade elsewhere (the Griz will not pay the luxury tax this season, and therefore cannot take back more salary than they send out). Considering their need for frontcourt depth, it seems unlikely Clarke will go, leaving Kennard and Konchar as the best options. Look for players such as Derrick Jones Jr., Cody Martin, Simone Fontecchio, Jae’Sean Tate, and Corey Kispert to be popular names the Grizzlies are rumored to be interested in when the trade deadline rolls around.

(Kennard makes about $9.25 million, Konchar a little over $6 million, and Clarke sits at $12.5 million. They could combine Clarke or Kennard’s salaries with Konchar to get in the ballpark for players such as Harrison Barnes and Bogdan Bogdanovic using Clark and Konchar or Deni Avdija, Isaiah Stewart, Dorian Finney-Smith, Grant Williams, and Jordan Clarkson using Kennard and Konchar.)

I thought I would be higher on the Grizzlies before really diving in on them. I like all of the young players on this roster. I think the starting lineup works together and has supreme talent. I’m just concerned.

If they are truly contenders, I don’t like how reliant they are on players in their first three years in the league. History tells us they need better veteran experience on good contracts to truly compete. Young teams make small mistakes.

Watch Vince Williams and Marcus Smart at the top of the key. Williams rotates to Herb Jones before Zion passes the ball across the floor. Smart is already in front of Trey Murphy, taking away an open three before he even has the ball.

But, look at Roddy. He is still standing at the restricted area line next to the basket. He never moves to close out on CJ McCollum until McCollum already has the ball.

The best defenses make quick rotations, moving before the ball is even passed. They see where the offense is heading before the ball gets there. Most young teams cannot process the game quickly enough to be able to do that. I’m not sure the Grizzlies offense will be high-powered enough to counter a potential slip in the defensive rankings from their glory days.

If I had to make a prediction, my guess is that they will finish outside of the top four in the West but will compete for the five or six seed.

Unfortunately, their fear of the tax has likely robbed them of being true contenders this year. If they ever want to be true contenders during Ja’s prime, they will need to pony up and pay for it.