Three Teams to Watch Closely Over the First 25 Games (#1 of 3)
Contenders? Dark Horses? Pretenders? Tankers? Maybe just confusing?
QUICK PROGRAMMING NOTE: I strive to provide in-depth analysis on the things I write about - not just surface-level hot takes that you can get from watching ESPN - while keeping it easy to read in under 10 minutes for most readers. But, I was having difficulty keeping it short for this article so I decided to try something new. So, I will be releasing one team at a time over the next 3 days - each day released at 7am so you have the full day to read it before the next one comes out. Each article should take about 5 minutes to read for most people so, individually, they should be shorter than a typical article. If you like the new format, let me know - I may come back to it again in the future! Now let’s dive in!
We are less than THREE weeks away from the start of the NBA regular season. Get ZOOKED! With that, we are in full-blown preview season. I’ve already written about the two teams (the Cavs and Warriors) that I find most compelling this year (you can find those below).
If all goes to plan, in a future piece, I want to take a look at a few role players that I find compelling and will have a big impact on their team’s future based on their play this year (stay tuned!). Before that though, we’re going to take a look at three more teams that I find compelling and will be watching closely for the first few months - starting with the Memphis Grizzlies.
Memphis Grizzlies
Two years ago, the Grizzlies looked like the next big team. They were tough, cocky, and played their rear ends off. They had a superstar point guard in Ja Morant who was the ultimate persona of the hard-nosed Grizzlies: fearless with a swagger that said, “I don’t care if we haven’t done anything yet. We’re not afraid and we’re coming for your throats.”
Then, last season, it flipped. They came into the season with expectations and their cockiness led to them being labeled as villains. That same superstar point guard’s persona off the court became more interesting than what he did on the court. A minor character on the team transitioned into a lead role on every national podcast and TV edition as the lead bad guy. (Dillon Brooks was eventually embarrassed so severely in the playoffs that he stopped talking to the media and is now wearing a Rockets uniform.)
It wasn’t all bad though. Jaren Jackson Jr. won Defensive Player of the Year after playing some otherworldly per-minute defense. (I still think Brook Lopez was robbed and was the best defender last year but that’s just my opinion.) Desmond Bane made another leap and might’ve made his first all-star game had he not gotten hurt. Despite their best four players all missing over 20 games and their offense going from 5th in the prior season to 15th, this team STILL managed to finish 2nd in the brutal West.
The front office bet big in the offseason by swapping out Tyus Jones (now on the Wizards) and the aforementioned Dillon Brooks for Marcus Smart and his toughness, experience, versatility, and (perhaps most importantly) leadership. Outside of that, the rest of the roster is largely the same. The Griz are counting on continued internal development from key young, role players such as John Konchar, David Roddy, Jake Laravia, Santi Aldama, Xavier Tillman, and Ziaire Williams.
Roddy, Aldama, and Tillman are the most experienced of that young crew with each playing significant roles off the bench last year. Aldama was probably the most impressive as the best shooter of the group and seems ready to take another step forward after playing well for Spain in the FIBA World Cup this summer. Roddy’s shooting disappointed last year (30.7%) after progressing into a 43.8% shooter in his last year at college - I expect that to take a step forward this year. Ziaire Williams is maybe the most intriguing of the young crew after playing better than expected in his rookie season but falling out of the rotation last year after injuries. I would guess that he’ll get a little more run this year.
Marcus Smart should help keep the ship afloat while Ja Morant is suspended for the first 25 games. Smart is a proven point guard though the offense will almost certainly suffer without their star guard at the helm. Last year, this team was a middle-of-the-road offensive team (a big drop from the previous season when they were 5th in offensive rating) with the league’s 3rd best defense - the offense will likely be even worse without Ja. That said, a starting lineup of Smart, Bane, [insert wing here], Jackson, and Adams should be a defensive force that will keep them in every game. Because of that, my hunch is that this team will stay competitive and punch above its weight class until Ja returns.
There are still concerns - those young role players are moving into bigger bench roles with the loss of their key veteran leaders, Brandon Clarke (out for the year with an achilles injury) and Tyus Jones. Despite Jaren Jackson Jr.’s defensive accolades, he needs to learn how to play defense without fouling.
Biggest of all though, this offense has a tendency to get stuck in the mud - especially in the playoffs. The spacing should be a little better with Smart in place of Brooks. Smart also gives the Grizzlies an extra ball handler (and a significantly better passer than Brooks) to pair with Bane and Morant. Watch closely for some of the bench players developing better jumpers - Roddy, Williams, and Aldama’s shooting could be a major swing skill for this offense.
This team has been counted out by every national discourse - most analysts seem to consider them in the third or fourth tier in the conference, at risk of falling into the play-in. But, this team has won 50 games and finished 2nd in the tough Western Conference in back-to-back seasons. I see no reason to believe that this team will backslide now - I’m still a believer. That said, I will be closely watching the Grizzlies offense at the start of the season to see if they are able to return to being a top 5-8 offense as well as how the young guns look in more prominent roles.
Don’t forget, the 2nd part of this 3-part series will drop tomorrow at 7am! Stay tuned!