Three Teams to Watch Closely Over the First 25 Games (#2 of 3)
If you had to give this team a band name, what would it be?
QUICK PROGRAMMING NOTE: I’m trying something a little different by posting three shorter articles on back-to-back-to-back days instead of one REALLY long article. This is Article #2 of 3. Check out Article #1 here where I talked about the talented, yet untrustworthy Memphis Grizzlies. Come back again tomorrow at 7am (or whenever you prefer to read about sports) for Article #3 for my last intriguing team to watch closely at the start of the season!
We are 15 (FIFTEEN!) days away from the start of the regular season!! (assuming you read this on the day it comes out anyway). Being in full-blown preview season, we’ve discussed a few teams already that I find intriguing this upcoming season. Today, we are going to take a look at the patient yet underwhelming (to me anyway) New York Knicks!
New York Knicks
In theory, the Knicks should not be a confusing team. They finished last season with the league’s 8th-best record (5th in the East) and the 7th-best net rating. Over the offseason, they brought the band back for another tour with the only change being swapping out backup forward Obi Toppin for rotation-wing Donte DiVincenzo. This album sounds familiar though.
Three seasons ago, the Knicks finished 4th in the East with the 9th-best net rating in the league. The following season, they crashed back down to earth finishing 10th in the East despite largely bringing the same team back. So, forgive me if I’m a little cautious with my belief in this team.
The optimist will say that the team two seasons ago didn’t have Jalen Brunson leading them at point guard. Instead, they had a compilation of Alec Burks and Kemba Walker with second-year guard Immanuel Quickley running the bench units.
The pessimist (me) will say that their All-NBA forward, Julius Randle, has been top-5 in minutes played in two out of the last three seasons while RJ Barrett and Jalen Brunson have been right there with him - can they sustain that for another season? (Look, some athletes are just built differently. Mikal Bridges has led the league in minutes the past two seasons and was 10th the season before that. Some players are just ironmen. Maybe these guys are just those kinds of players.)
Randle is a two-time All-NBA forward but that’s more from lasting through a season without getting injured. He survives on an extremely difficult diet of shot attempts. In his first All-NBA season, he hit those shots. Then, he regressed and didn’t. Last year, he made them again. Can the real Julius Randle please stand up?
Despite being named as a top-15 player in two out of the past three seasons, I’m not sure many people (anybody?) would actually have Randle as a top-15 player in the league - he’s probably closer to 20-25th (a really good player still!). Brunson is a terrific point guard but has never made an All-Star team and is probably only a borderline all-star at his peak (in the same mold as Randle - again, a really good player!). This team has the backup singers and that one guy who absolutely shreds on the guitar - but they lack that true elite star (the lead singer if you will). (Too many music-related analogies? Okay, I’ll stop…)
But, where this team lacks star power, they have solid depth. They go at least two deep at guard, wing, and center with players that could start on many teams. (Isaiah Roby is currently slotted as the backup power forward but he is going into his 5th year and hasn’t managed to claim a rotation spot anywhere else. He also underwhelmed at summer league this year - a bad sign for a 5th-year player. Knicks fans shouldn’t count on him as the Toppin replacement.)
The Knicks will likely have to play smaller this year with RJ Barrett and Josh Hart having to play spot minutes at forward behind Randle. (This is why it’s even more critical than usual that Randle stay healthy - they have no other proven option to start in that spot.) Their best offensive weapon has been offensive rebounding - 3rd in the league last year. That will get worse having to play small and I’m not sure that they will get enough of the offensive benefits of playing small (shooting, ball movement, wider driving lanes) to counteract the loss of rebounding.
Quentin Grimes, RJ Barrett, and Immanuel Quickley are young and should continue to improve. Grimes and Quickley are the best shooters on the roster - the Knicks need a higher volume from them to create more driving lanes for Randle and Brunson. Barrett’s shooting has fallen off a cliff from 40.1% three seasons ago to 34.2% to 31.0% last year. He may not be a 40% shooter but he is better than what he showed last year. Expect some positive regression back towards 35% or so.
Watching the Knicks can be somewhat of a slog (kind of like watching the extended version of the Lord of the Rings - there are good parts but it may still put you to sleep). They ran isolations at the 3rd highest rate in the league to decent regular-season success (those same isolations were not as effective in the playoffs) and had the 5th-slowest pace.
Despite that, they still managed to finish with the 4th-best offense in the league - a ranking helped by their outstanding offensive rebounding. This was maybe the most surprising stat of all last season. Tom Thibodeau-led teams are known for their unrelenting defense, not offense. Instead, last year’s Knicks had a good offense but finished with a below-average defense (19th in the league). The offense fell off a cliff in the playoffs and I’d expect them to regress back to the middle of the pack this season. If the offense does regress, it will be worth monitoring how the defense is faring.
If the Knicks stay healthy, they should be able to finish around where they were last year in the standings. They have a lot of capable, tough players that will play hard every night. I don’t THINK that this Knicks team will crap the bed like they did two seasons ago. But, I’m not guaranteeing that they will run it back with the same level of success this year either.
This feels like a team that is one move away from true contention. They didn’t seem to get involved in the Damian Lillard or Jrue Holiday sweepstakes despite having a horde of other teams’ draft picks and matching salaries that can be used in a trade for a star. (They do lack the young tentpole that every team wants when trading away a star. This will complicate their abilities to get into the action when their desired star inevitably becomes available. RJ Barrett gets older every year making him less desirable as that centerpiece in a trade.) At some point, I wonder if the Knicks front office will start to get a little impatient if they underwhelm this year - or maybe just whelm. I will be keeping a close eye on their start to the season and if the front office starts to lose that patience and get more involved in the trade market as the trade deadline approaches.